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The Ethical Actuary—a Tautology: Never let it Become an Oxymoron!
financial calculations. Our motto has long been Ruskin’s famous quote that “The work of science is to substitute ... discuss some of the latter cases in this article. Let’s start with a very simple example. Assume that model ...- Authors: David Snell
- Date: Aug 2021
- Competency: Communication; Professional Values
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Actuarial Profession; Modeling & Statistical Methods
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Explainable AI
Explainable AI Machine learning models are not black-boxes; these models can easily be interpreted using ... generated. This article demonstrates their use in a mortality model. 11/18/2020 12:00:00 AM ...- Authors: Carlos Brioso
- Date: Nov 2020
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods; Technology & Applications
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Actuaries: Do We Know Our Limits?
so we put in a link to it. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/52684680/2020%20Hindsight.pdf Scott plans to make ... abilities and limits. How well can you predict U.S. unemployment? There is an iPad 2 in store for the ...- Authors: David Snell
- Date: Jan 2012
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Like Peas in a Pod - Ideas in Cluster Analysis
create a feature that encodes the average income, mortality rate, or per member per month (PMPM) health care ... Computational Statistics 5(5):349-361. Lundberg S., Lee S., A unified approach to interpreting model predictions ...- Authors: Michael Niemerg
- Date: Apr 2020
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods; Predictive Analytics
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The Random GLM Algorithm: A Better Ensemble?
of the datasets used, are shown in the following table: Michael Niemerg, FSA, MAAA, is an actuary at ... ISBN 0-387-95284-5. Song L, Langfelder P, Horvath S (2013) Random generalized linear model: a highly accu- ...- Authors: Michael Niemerg
- Date: Dec 2016
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods
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When Algebra Gets Chaotic
mate? In modeling, we make assumptions about mortality, morbidity, investment returns, tax rates, etc ... tragedy of 9/11. Are we all independent from a mortality perspective; or does our complex network of interrelationships ...- Authors: David Snell
- Date: Jan 2012
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods
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Standing Room Only! Complexity Grows at Annual Meeting
Standing Room Only! Complexity Grows at Annual Meeting Discusses the three complexity science ... ity science (at the Annual Meeting 2010, Life & Annuity Symposium 2011 and Health Meeting 2011, plus some ...- Authors: David Snell
- Date: Jan 2012
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Economics>Behavioral economics; Finance & Investments>Asset liability management; Modeling & Statistical Methods
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Complexity Sciences—Simplified!
Complexity Sciences—Simplified! The author discusses the two-part presentation on complexity ... them. We were asked to repeat them at the Life & Annuity Symposium in New Orleans, May 16–17, and at the ...- Authors: David Snell
- Date: Jul 2011
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods
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The First Step in Building a Predictive Model
The First Step in Building a Predictive Model A discussion on the starting point of building ... starting point for any model is to define what question(s) you are trying to answer. What are you trying to ...- Authors: Nathan Dennis Pohle
- Date: Dec 2018
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods
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The Delphi Method
documented in a report entitled, “Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for ... president—individual insurance Product Management of the u.S. operations—Sun life financial in Wellesley hills ...- Date: Sep 2009
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods